中国耕地利用的可持续性研究——基于耕地粮食生产率的分析

Research on the Sustainability of Cultivated Land Use in China: Based on Grain Productivity

以界定耕地利用可持续性内涵为起点,采用耕地粮食生产率可比系数和标准化分值方法衡量耕地的生产可持续性,以单位耕地化肥使用过量程度作为生态因子对可比系数和标准化分值进行调整衡量耕地的生态可持续性。利用统计数据、以基期与报告期的时间尺度和分省份的空间尺度实现可持续性的测度。研究发现:(1)以耕地粮食生产率测量的全国耕地生产可持续性呈现出递增趋势,但以化肥使用过量程度作为生态因子调整后的耕地生态可持续性明显低于生产可持续性;(2)耕地生产可持续性与生态可持续性的区域差异明显,粮食主产区耕地资源利用可持续的稳定性和递增性高于全国平均水平,即意味着差异性的耕地保护政策会更有助于稳定和提升耕地利用的可持续程度。

This paper starts with definition of the sustainability of cultivated land use. We study on the evaluation of productive sustainability of cultivated land by the measure of comparable ratio of grain productivity and the standard score system, and also on the evaluation of ecological sustainability of cultivated land through adjusting the comparable ratios and standard score by using the excess fertilization of unit land as an ecological factor. We base our study on the data and achieve the measure Of sustainability, with the time frame from base period and report period and the measure in space of provinces. We have two main findings. Firstly, country wide productive sustainability of cultivated land is increasing, as measured by the grain productivity of cultivated land, but after adjusting by using the excess fertilization of unit land as an ecological factor, the ecological sustainability is significantly lower than the productive sustainability. Secondly, there are substantial regional differences in ecological sustainability and productiye sustainability, that is, the sustainability of cultivated land use is more stable and of higher growth for areas of major grain production than the average of the country, indicating that the diversity of cultivated land protection policy is helpful for the stability and improvement of sustainability of cultivated land use.