基于SPSS的梧州早稻产量预测模型构建

Building of early season rice yield prediction model of Wuzhou by SPSS

应用界面友好的SPSS统计软件及Microsoft Excel软件作为建模工具,利用l983-2014年梧州市气象局早稻生长发育关键期气象观测资料和市统计局提供的早稻单产资料,采用直线滑动均值和调和权重法模拟外推趋势产量,再通过逐步回归建立气象产量预报方程,得到产量预报值,建立梧州市早稻产量的定量预测模型,通过了5%的信度检验,并且2015年的预报准确率为98.6%。

Based on the meteorological observation of the early rice growing stage data from 1983-2014 and yield data provided by municipal of statistical bureau, the output of trend extrapolation was obtained by the linear sliding mean and mediate weight method, and meteorological yield forecast equation was established by stepwise regression to get the volume forecast value, then early rice yield quantitative prediction model in Wuzhou was established, which passed the reliability test of 5%, and get the forecast accuracy of 98.6% in 2015.