中国城镇居民家庭储蓄水平队列效应分析

China's Urban Households Savings Queue Effect Analysis

利用中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据对城镇居民家庭的储蓄率进行了队列效应的实证研究。分析结果表明,属于不同队列的城镇家庭在储蓄水平上都呈现出相似的"U"型年龄分布,即中年家庭(40-50岁)储蓄率低,年轻家庭(20-40岁)和退休家庭储蓄率较高,这一现象与其他国家的实证研究结果有显著不同。本文认为,中国城镇居民储蓄率的"U"型年龄分布主要是由人口与经济的高速增长带来的:人口高速增长带来的队列规模效应使得面对更大竞争压力的年轻人口储蓄率较高,而经济水平持续增长带来的消费水平增长预期使得接近退休家庭储蓄水平重新上升。

This paper,by using Chinese Household Income Survey（ China Household Income Project,CHIP） data,queue for saving rates of urban households effect of empirical research. The analysis results show that the urban families belonging to different queue on savings are showing a similar u-shaped age distribution,the middle-aged（ 40 to 50 years old） family savings rate is low,while the young families（ 20- 40 years old） and the retirement household savings rate is higher,the phenomenon is different with the empirical research results in other countries. This paper argues that the U age distribution of China＇s urban residents savings rate is mainly caused by the rapid growth of population and economy. The queue size effect of population growth make the young people face the greater competitive pressure cause higher savings rate,while the sustained growth and the expectation of consumption growth make nearing retirement level of household savings rise again.