旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响仿真研究

Tourism Impact on Regional Economic Development Forecasting Simulation Research

对旅游业对地区经济发展预测影响进行准确分析,可加速旅游业的发展进程。在进行旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响分析时,需要综合计算不同影响因素的权重并及时更新,但是传统方法只能对每个指标进行单维独立研究,无法获取影响因素权重的综合值,导致旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响分析误差大。提出采用多维交互决策树的旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响建模方法。上述方法利用多维交互决策树模型对国内不同地区居民旅游感知差异进行统计,得到旅游旅客的收入水平对旅游的影响性,获取不同类型旅游游客在空间上的正相关性(空间依赖性)和集聚特征,利用叶贝斯分类器对其特征进行分类,计算旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响的综合权重,并建立旅游业对地区经济发展预测的影响模型。仿真结果表明,上述模型可以为国内外关于入境旅游的研究提供有力的依据。

Analyzation of tourism influence on regional economic development forecasting can accelerate development course of tourism. In this paper, we proposed a method of multi-dimensional interactive decision-making tree to forecast the tourism influence on regional economic development. Based on the method, we made the statistics of resident tourism perception difference in inland different areas via muhi-dimensional interactive decision-making tree model. We gained the influence of tourist by visitors＇ income level and obtained positive correlation property and gather feature in space of different type visitors. We classified the features via Bayes classifier to calculate comprehensive weight of tourism influence on regional economic development forecasting and built the model. Simulation results show that above model can offer powerful gist for inbound tourism research at home and abroad.