谁的通胀预期影响了货币政策

Whose Inflation Expectations Affect Monetary Policy

本文建立含有通胀预期的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,基于2001年1季度至2014年4季度居民和专家两组通胀预期调研数据,研究中国人民银行决策信息集中是否包含通胀预期变量,以及谁的通胀预期更能影响货币政策。研究表明:(1)央行对居民预期和专家预期均做出显著反应,但对专家预期反应更强:平均而言,专家预期值提高1%,央行当季会降低货币供应量增长率0.4%,拆借利率则上浮0.1%;(2)在长期,央行遵循"逆预期"操作的相机抉择行为模式,表明预期变量是央行决策信息集的重要组成部分;(3)央行对某些机构的预测数据反应较强,其预测信息集可能与央行信息集重合度较高。

The information set of The People＇s Bank of China（ PBC） remains a secret even today. Using survey data in China from 2001Q1 to 2014Q4,this paper investigates the impact of inflation expectations of households and professionals on monetary policy with forward- looking monetary reaction functions. The empirical results suggest that central bank of China does react to expectations,especially to those of professionals. Central bank seems to hold a discretionary policy： when facing with increasing expected inflation rate,central bank will tighten money supply and vice versa. From the comparison of central bank＇s reactions to different agents,we conclude that the information set of central bank in China is quite close to those of State Information Center and BOC International Holdings Limited.