自贸区设立、贸易发展与资本流动--基于上海自贸区的研究

Establishment of FTZ,Trade Development and Capital Flows:Based on the Perspective of Shanghai Free Trade Zone

设立上海自贸区作为推动改革开放的极其重要的政策实验,三年来其制度创新的绩效及相关的影响效应如何?基于此,本文首先考察了自贸区设立对货物贸易进出口的差异化影响,并在此基础上进一步地实证考察了样本期内自贸区的设立对上海资本流动的影响。得到以下结论:(1)自贸区设立对货物贸易进口有显著正向影响,但对货物贸易出口则不显著,也即自贸区设立对货物贸易净进口有显著正向影响。(2)基于模糊断点回归设计和非线性双重差分模型的研究发现,自贸区设立对上海地区资本流动有显著正向影响,且企业家信心因素也影响到了资本流动。(3)通过对不同叶宽情况下非参数估计值的考察,表明标识变量的基准结果十分稳健。同时为了排除广东、天津、福建等省市的特殊性,我们采用了剔除及延长样本期的方式重新进行了检验,结果进一步证实了上述结论的可靠性。

The establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Experimental Zone（ hereinafter referred to as FTZ） as the extremely important policy experiment to promote the reform and opening up,what is its performance and related effects of system innovation has been the very time that urgent to summarize and assess carefully. Based on this. Firstly,this paper analyzes the trade in goods import and export to the different impact of the establishment of FTZ,and further from the point of view of capital flows,and empirically examines the influence of capital flow in Shanghai with the foundation of FTZ in the sample period. We got the following conclusions：（ 1） FTZ establishment has a significant positive impact on the import of goods trade,but exports of goods trade is not significant,that is,the establishment of free trade zone has a significant negative impact on the net exports of goods trade.（ 2） based on the research of fuzzy breakpoint regression design and nonlinear double difference model,it is found that the establishment of free trade zone has a significant positive effect on the capital flow in Shanghai area. Decreased entrepreneur confidence will lead to an increase in capital outflows,and the FTZ has a certain extent impact.（ 3） Based on the investigation of non- parametric estimation for different width case,it shows that the benchmark result of marking variables is very steady.Meanwhile,in order to exclude the particularity of Guangdong,Tianjin,Fujian etc,we made a re- test by using the way of eliminating and extending the sample period to further verifies the accuracy of the foregoing conclusions.