环境规制情景下我国农村居民间接碳排放研究——基于STIRPAT模型和PLS-VIP方法

Research on Rural Residents Indirect Carbon Emissions in China under Environmental Regulation Situation——Based on STIRPAT Model and PLS-VIP Method

采用消费者生活方式法,估算出1999—2014年我国农村居民间接能源消费和间接碳排放。使用STIRPAT模型、偏最小二乘法—变量投影重要指标(PLS-VIP)研究环境规制情景下,间接能源消费等因素对农村居民间接碳排放的影响。结果显示:农村居民间接能源消费和间接碳排放呈上升趋势;农村居民间接能源消费弹性系数大于1,呈现出富有弹性的特征;环境规制强度的提高会引起农村居民人均间接碳排放降低;我国新型城镇化建设能够降低间接碳排放;第三产业比重的弹性系数为负值,说明农村第三产业比重的提高会减少间接碳排放。最后,提出提高能源使用效率,优化农村居民用能结构等建议。

By the consumer lifestyle approach, rural residents＇ indirect energy consumption and carbon emissions was calculated from 1999 to 2014 in China. Using the STIRPAT model, partial least squares and variable important projection（PLS - VIP）, this paper studied the impact of the in- direct energy consumption and other factors on the indirect carbon emissions of rural residents in China under the environmental regulation situation. The results showed that the rural residents＇ indirect energy consumption and indirect carbon emissions were on the rise. The indirect energy consump- tion elasticity coefficient of the rural residents was more than one, with the characteristics of elasticity, ranked as the first. The improvement of environ- mental regulation intensity would reduce the rural residents＇ indirect carbon emissions. The new kind of urbanization construction could reduce the in- direct carbon emissions. The third industry proportion elasticity coefficient was negative which explained that the rural increase of the third industry proportion would reduce the indirect carbon emissions. Finally, this paper put forward some suggestions such as improving energy efficiency, optimizing the energy structure of rural residents etc.