云南省农业产业结构变动对农业经济增长的影响分析

Analysis on Influence of Agricultural Industrial Structure Change on Agricultural Economic Growth in Yunnan Province

运用灰色关联法对云南省1994—2014年农业产业结构的变化和趋势做了定量分析,测算了云南省农业产业结构变动对农业经济增长的贡献。研究结果表明:产业结构调整对农业经济增长有重要影响;种植业是推动云南省农业经济增长的主导力量,在农业经济发展中拉动率较大,起支柱作用;牧业拉动率仅次于种植业;林业、渔业对农业经济增长相对较小;云南省农业产业结构的优化水平在很大程度上依赖于种植业的发展;农业结构调整形成由种植业中粮食作物的持续稳定生产为主,经济作物和其他作物协调发展为辅的态势,云南省农业产业结构的变动与优化对农业经济发展起到助推作用。

By using the grey correlation method for the quantitative analysis of Yunnan Province from 1994 to 2014, the agricultural industrial structure changes and trends were estimated. It showed that the research on agricultural economic growth changed in industrial structure of agriculture in Yunnan Province. The adjustment of industrial structure had an important effect on agricultural economic growth. The planting industry was the lead- ing force in promoting agricultural economic growth in Yunnan Province. The pulling in agricultural economic development rate was larger which played a pivotal role. The pulling in animal husbandry was after the rate of planting industry, forestry and fisheries on agricultural economic growth was relatively small, the optimizing level of agriculture industry structure in Yunnan Province was largely dependent on farming, adjustment of agricultural structure in Yunnan Province was the main food production to keep food crop and stable production, the process of economic transformation and other crops in coordinated development.