土地财政、城镇化因素对房价影响的实证分析——基于中国1999-2014年各省房价的面板数据

The empirical analysis of the impact of land finance and factor of urbanization on housing prices: based——provincial panel data of the housing prices in China during 1999 and 2014

当前一二线城市房价的普遍快速上涨引起普遍关注。本文选取了全国31个省份1999-2014年商品房平均实际销售价格面板数据,通过固定效应回归分析结果表明:地方政府土地财政激励以及城镇化水平与房价上涨存在显著的正相关。此外,诸如城镇居民家庭人均实际可支配收入以及人口增长率等基本经济因素对房价也存在显著的正向影响。不过,关于全国范围内的面板数据固定效应回归可能掩盖不同地区之间存在的显著差异。在稳健性检验中,本文分地区进行固定效应回归。稳健性检验的结果表明,在经济相对发达的西部以外地区,地方政府土地财政激励对房价具有更为显著的正向影响。与此同时,在西部以外地区,城镇化水平对于房价的推动作用更为显著。

The current second-tier cities generally rapid rise in housing prices caused widespread concern. In this paper, panel data of average real sales price of commercial houses in 31 provinces from 1999 to 2014 are selected. The regression results show that there is a significant positive correlation between local governments＇ fiscal incentive and urbanization level and house price rise. In addition, the basic economic factors such as real disposable income per capita of urban households and population growth rate also have a significant positive impact on house prices. However, the country-wide panel data fixed-effect regression may mask significant differences between regions. In the robustness test, this paper carries on the fixed effect regression by region. The results of the robustness test show that the fiscal incentives of local government have a more significant positive impact on house prices in the regions with relatively developed western regions. At the same time, outside the western region, the level of urbanization for the promotion of housing prices is more significant.