丝绸之路经济带沿线国家石油贸易网络结构特征及影响因素

The Structure and Influencing Factors of Oil Trade Network about the Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt

以2005-2014年丝绸之路经济带沿线国家石油贸易数据为基础,利用社会网络分析方法对石油贸易网络结构进行特征分析,在此基础上利用QAP模型分析石油贸易网络影响因素。研究结果显示:丝绸之路经济带沿线国家石油贸易网络结构并非典型的无标度网络,2005-2014年石油贸易联系基本保持不变,贸易量呈增大趋势;石油贸易网络异质化程度较高,核心—边缘结构较稳定,但核心国家数逐步减少的趋势使得整个网络的脆弱性增强。替代能源比重差距、人口差距对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家石油贸易存在显著的负向影响;石油贸易联系受经济发展水平差距、陆地相邻与否影响不大;语言不同的国家更倾向于建立贸易联系;物流绩效水平差距越大越不利于国家间建立紧密的贸易联系。

Based on the oil trade data of Silk-road Economic Belt during the period 2005- 2014,this paper analyzes the characteristics by using the social network method. Then it uses QAP regression to analyze the influencing factors.The results show that, the network structure of countries along the Silk-road Economic Belt isn＇t typical scale-free networks. Oil trade links remain unchanged during the period 2005-2014, and the quantity of international oil trade tends to increase. The degree of heterogeneity of the oil trade network is high. Core- periphery structure is relatively stable. The trend of the number of core countries gradually reducing increases the vulnerability of entire network. The proportion of alternative energy gaps and the population gaps have a significant negative impact on the oil trade of the countries along the Silk-road Economic Belt. Economic development gaps and land adjacent or not have little impact on the oil trade links. Language in different countries tends to establish trade links. The greater the gap of logistics performance between countries, the harder to establish a close trade links.