中国高技术产品出口真的超过日本了吗——基于三元边际分解的实证分析

Does Chinese High-Tech Products Export really Surpass Japan——An Empirical Analysis Based on Three Margins Decomposition Framework

中国超越日本成为亚洲最大高技术产品出口国,已引起国内外学者关注。本文采用CEPII BACI hs92六位码产品贸易数据,测度了中日两国1995-2013年间高技术产品的出口扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际,分析了出口增长的主要推动力和影响因素。研究结果表明:中国高技术产品出口仅仅在数量边际上超过了日本,价格边际抑或产品质量仅为日本的四成;中国高技术产品出口高速增长主要由集约边际推动,扩展边际贡献接近于零。日本高技术产品出口增长主要由价格边际拉动,扩展边际和数量边际双双负增长;进口中间品与中国扩展边际和价格边际负相关,与数量边际正相关,与日本三元边际总体负相关。目的市场经济规模与两国价格边际负相关。经济自由化程度与中国价格边际和日本扩展边际负相关。外商直接投资与中国价格边际正相关。最后,本文提出了维系中国高技术产品出口快速增长的政策建议。

China surpassed Japan to be the top exporter country of HighTech product in Asia, which has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. This paper adopted the CEPII BACI hs92 six digital trade data to measure the extensive margin, price margin and quantity margin of High- Tech product in China and Japan during 1995- 2013, and analyzed the major driving force and influencing factors of the export growth. We found： China surpassed Japan with the quantity margin only, the price margin in only 40% of that of Japan;The high export growth of China is main driven by intensive margin, the contribution of extensive margin is nearly zero. The main driven force of Japanese export growth is price margin, the growth rate of extensive margin and quantity margin is negative separately; The imported intermediate products have an negative effect on Chinese extensive margin and price margin and Japanese three margins, positive effect on quantity margin in China. The economy scale of target markets correlated with price margin of two countries. The freedom of economy correlated with Chinese price margin and Japanese extensive margin. Foreign Direct Investment has an positive effect on Chinese price margin. Finally, this paper gave some policy suggestion on how to sustain the high export growth of Chinese High-Tech product.