产业结构调整速率对OFDI的静态影响与动态效应——基于2003-2013年省级面板数据的检验

The Static and Dynamic Effect of the Speed of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Enterprises' Outward Foreign Direct Investment——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China in 2003-2013

供给侧结构性改革的实践在于主动促进产业结构高度化,而现阶段"一带一路"战略背景下企业迎来了"走出去"的历史新机遇。本文拓宽了既有研究分析框架,通过机制梳理认为母国产业结构调整从供给端的技术创新、消费结构和需求端的人力资本、能源需求等路径影响企业对外直接投资水平,并基于2003-2013年省级面板数据从静态情形下检验了产业结构及其高度化水平对企业对外直接投资的影响,结果表明产业结构对企业对外直接投资将产生显著的正向影响。此外,基于动态视角,本文考察了产业结构调整速率对企业对外直接投资增长率的影响,结果显示,产业结构调整速率与OFDI增长率之间具有显著的正向关联,且基于Granger因果关系检验进一步验证两者之间互为Granger原因,存在互动效应。

The operation of ＂Supply-side Structural Reform＂ is about actively contribute to industrial restructuring. Meanwhile, in the context of ＂One Belt and One Road＂ strategy, it creates historical opportunities for Chinese enterprises to ＂go global＂. The paper broadens the traditional research framework, and it is believed that the adjustment of industrial structure in home country will affect enterprises＇ outward foreign direct investment in the aspects of both demand- side and supply- side, which includes human capital, technological innovation, consumption structure, and energy demand. By using provincial panel data in 2003- 2013 of China, the paper manages to examine the effect of industrial structure and its adjustment rate of speed on OFDI under scenarios of both static and dynamic state. The results show that under the static state, the industrial structure has significantly positive effect on OFDI and the adjustment speed of rate of industrial structure is positively correlated with the growth rate of OFDI.On that basic, the paper further investigates the interactive effect between the adjustment speed of rate of industrial structure and the growth rate of OFDI by conducting Granger Causality Tests, whose result confirms the existence of interactive effect.