中国经济减速的原因与出路

The Reason and Way out of Slowdown for China's Economy

研究者用经典的索罗余值法估计全要素生产率(TFP)时通常假定资本—产出弹性系数α是常数,这既脱离经济实际,也导致估计结果偏差。运用广义的索罗余值法,把α看做是可变的,重新测算中国的TFP,并利用变系数模型分析中国GDP变化的影响因素,可以发现,中国经济增长之所以自2010年开始减速,主要原因是2008年以后TFP增长率在波动中持续下降,由2007年的11.673 5%大幅下降到2009年的6.061 4%和2011年的3.836 1%。因此,中国经济减速主要是"技术性减速",而不是产业结构调整带来的"结构性减速"或"劳动力增长减速";技术引进速度和自主创新速度分别自2008年和2009年开始在波动中双双下降,导致了我国技术进步速度放缓和TFP增长率下降,而自主创新速度增长不足以填补技术引进速度降低是导致我国TFP增长减速的主因;我国自主创新速度不快的主要原因是R&D支出增长和设备投资增长双双减慢,而其背后是复杂的体制原因。供给侧结构性改革、转方式、实现经济新常态必须从改革入手,大力促进自主创新。

Researchers generally assume that the coefficient of capital-output elasticity is constant when TFP estimated by Solow model,which leads both to the isolation from the economic reality and the de-viation of the estimation results.This paper presents a generalized Solow residual method,byαas a var-iable,TFP in China economy is re-measured.We analyses the factors influencing China＇s GDP by using a varying coefficient model.We find that the main reason for China＇s economics lowdown since 2010 is the growth rate of TFP which has continued to decline in the volatility since 2008,from 11.673 5% in 2007 sank to 6.061 4% in 2009 and 3.836 1% in 2011.Therefore,we believe that China＇s economic slowdown is mainly due to “a technical slowdown”,rather than to “a structural slowdown”arising from industrial structure adj ustment or “labor force growth slowdown”.We further find that it is the technology import and independent innovation sector which has declined in volatility since 2008 and 2009 respectively that result in China＇s technological progress slowdown and the decrease in growth rate of TFP,and the fact that the growth rate of independent innovation is not catching up with the downward of technology import is a maj or cause for the slowdown of China＇s TFP growth.In-depth a-nalysis also indicates that the slowdown of R＆D spending and investment on manufacturing facilities, behind ita complex institutional reasons,resulted in a slow pace of self-innovation in China.Therefore, the structural reform of supply-side,transforming the mode of economic development,and realizing new normal of China＇s economy should start from the reform and vigorous promotion of independent innovation.