产能过剩与企业出口自我选择——基于“产能—出口”假说的研究

Excess Capacity and Export Self-Section of Enterprise:Research Based on “Capacity-Export” Hypothesis

文章提出"产能—出口"假说,即产能利用率较低(较高)的企业倾向于选择内销(出口),并由该假说推演出产能过剩企业在出口自我选择上的理论推论,之后利用世界银行中国企业调查数据进行了实证检验。研究结果显示,产能利用率较低的企业限于内部规模经济较难实现和研发投入不足导致平均生产成本较高,加之较低的盈利能力及经营绩效又带来了较高的资金约束,较难克服出口额外成本而倾向于在国内销售;产能利用率较高的企业由于能够有效克服产能约束和出口额外成本,故倾向于选择出口。这说明产能利用率是企业出口比较优势的一个来源,即"产能—出口"假说适用于中国企业。同时,也表明产能过剩企业限于较高的平均生产成本和资金约束,选择出口的意愿较低。因此,要实现国内"过剩"优势产品的有效输出,就必须在生产成本、资金约束和国内出口成本上三管齐下,促进产能过剩企业的出口自我选择。

This paper presents the ＂Capacity-Export＂ hypothesis （CEH）, namely, the enterprises with higher （lower） capacity utilization tend to become exporters （domestic sellers）, and theoretically deducts the export self-section effect of the overcapacity enterprises under this hypothesis, which is empirically tested with the World Bank China-enterprise survey data. The research results show that the enterprises with lower capacity utilization suffer from higher average cost of production caused by less R＆D investment and difficulty to achieve internal economies of scale, and higher financial constraints as a re- sult of poor profitability and operating performance, making it difficult to overcome additional export costs and limited to do- mestic markets. The enterprises with higher capacity utilization tend to become exporters as they can effectively overcome the capacity constraints and additional export costs. This shows that capacity utilization is a source of comparative advantage of export enterprises, that is, the ＂Capacity-Export＂ hypothesis is applicable to Chinese enterprises. Meanwhile, it also shows that the low willingness to export of the overcapacity enterprises is limited to higher average production costs and financial con- straints. Therefore, financial constraints, production costs and export costs have to be reduced in order to achieve effective export of domestic ＂excess＂ superior products, through export self-section of the enterprises with excess capacity.