区域尘肺发病估算指标体系的构建

Construction of estimation indicator system for regional pneumoconiosis incidence

目的构建区域尘肺病发病估算指标体系。方法查阅文献并经专家反复讨论,建立初步的区域尘肺发病估算指标体系;采用德尔菲法咨询,用界值法对指标体系进行筛选。结果遴选32名职业卫生领域资深专家经两轮咨询,积极系数分别为93.75%、96.67%,权威系数分别为0.83、0.83,总体协调系数分别为0.241(P<0.001)、0.458(P<0.001)。最后从36个指标中筛选出18个指标(包括一级指标6个,二级指标14个,三级指标18个)构成区域尘肺发病估算指标体系。结论积极系数、权威系数及协调系数显示,选取的专家权威性高,指标体系的评分结果可靠,研究误差控制较好,构建的区域尘肺发病估算指标体系可靠,值得在实践中进一步检验、验证、完善。

Objective To construct the evaluation indicator system of regional pneumoconiosis incidence. Methods The draft of the estimation indicator system of regional pneumoconiosis incidence was established based on literature review and repeatly discussed by experts,Delphi method and boundary value method were also used for consulting and index screening.Results 32 senior experts of occupational health field were selected for two rounds of consultation,the positive coefficients of two rounds of consultation were 93. 75%,96. 67%,the authority coefficients were 0. 83,0. 83,and the overall coordination coefficients were 0. 241（ P〈0. 001）,0. 458（ P〈0. 001）,respectively. Finally,18 indicators（ including 6 one-grade indicators,14 two-grade indicators,18 three-grade indicators） were selected from 36 indicators to form the estimation indicator system of regional pneumoconiosis incidence. Conclusion The results suggested that all the positive coefficients,authority coefficients and coordination coefficients show that the selected experts are highly authoritative; accordingly,the scores of the indicator system given by experts are reliable and the research error control is well,and the indicator system established is reliable,therefore it will be worth to be further tested,verified and improved in practice.