汇率冲击与中国出口行业生产率分布

Exchange Rate Shock and the Distribution of Chinese Export Production

本文使用中国工业企业数据库1998—2007年的数据,分析2005年中国的汇改冲击对中国出口行业的生产率分布的影响,并进一步考察不同行业属性对这一关系的影响。本文使用了倍差法,利用中国的非出口企业作为参照组,进行了细致的实证分析,并分别从行业层面、地区层面以及样本偏误等角度进行了综合的稳健性分析。本文的结果显示:(1)2005年的汇率冲击显著地缩小了中国出口行业的生产率分布。(2)从行业角度看,汇率改革冲击对低利润率出口行业存在显著的影响,即缩小了低利润出口行业的生产率离散程度。(3)从地区角度看,汇率改革对东部地区出口行业减少资源错配的效果显著。(4)在考虑了样本选择性偏误后,本文的结果依然是稳健的。中国政府应当进一步放宽对价格机制调控的政策,使用市场手段调节价格,减少资源的错误配置,从而进一步提升中国出口行业的竞争力,促进中国出口行业的产业升级。

This paper analyzes the impact of the shock of China exchange rate reform in 2005 on distribution of Chinese export production,and explores the impact of different industry nature on the relationship using data on China Industry Business Performance Data during 1998-2007. We use difference-in-difference method,make use of a control group of China non-export firms to conduct a detailed empirical analysis. We also conduct robustness check on industry level,district level and sample bias. Our results show that the exchange rate shock of 2005 reduce the distribution of Chinese export production. At industry level,the exchange rate shock has significant impact on the industry with low exchange rate implying the reducing of discrete degree of low-exchange-rate industry. At district level,exchange rate reform has significant effect on relieving the resource distortions of export industry at east area. The result is still steady after adding sample selective bias. The Chinese government should further relax the regulation of the price mechanism,adjust the price through the market means,reduce the resource distortions,so as to further enhance the competitiveness of China＇s export industry and promote industrial upgrading of China＇s export industry.