全球化的政治经济学及中国策略

Political Economy of Globalization and China's Options in the Face of Globalization Reversal

20世纪90年代以来的全球化高潮在广度和深度上都超过了以往,以致许多工业化国家的国内经济社会政策跟不上其步伐,造成就业岗位损失和收入停滞,中产阶级和低收入者成为"输家",日益强烈地表达不满,政治家则倾向于把问题指向包括中国在内的新兴经济体的发展。以美国信贷扩张为代表的应对政策缘木求鱼,未能从供给侧解决生产率滞缓的问题,也未能通过再分配解决全球化收益的分享问题,反而对房地产泡沫推波助澜,及至导致泡沫的破灭,酿成国际金融危机继而欧洲债务危机,使世界经济陷入平庸状态。随着西方国家政治结构的民粹主义化,贸易、投资和移民等领域保护主义政策盛行,全球化趋势有逆转的危险。中国在其二元经济发展时期充分利用了上一轮全球化机遇,实现了高速经济增长和就业扩张,从而使全球化成果得以在广泛的基础上分享。面对式微的全球化,中国应以其经济体量和潜在消费力在世界经济中举足轻重的优势,主动有所作为,成为新一轮全球化的推动因素。

The climaxed globalization since 1990 s has outstripped previous ones in terms of scope and depth, so that social and economic policies in many industrial countries fail to handle its consequences,resulting in loss of jobs and stagnation of income. As middle class and low income households in those countries consider themselves losers in the globalization,complaints through various channels have intensified.Wrongly implemented countermeasures,such as credit expansion aiming at stimulating real estate market,not only were unavailing but also caused economic bubbles,which inevitably gave rise to the world financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and subsequent mediocre growth of the world economy. As the political structure in the Western countries goes populist,which tends to create protectionist policies in international cooperation arena,globalization has been put at risk of retrogression. During its dual economy development period,China has fully taken advantage of globalization opportunity to spur economic growth and share its outcomes among Chinese people. Given its economic size,huge potential of growth and consumption,and rising influence in global governance,China should actively take initiatives to give impetus to a new round of globalization.