克服浮动恐惧 增强汇率弹性——“8.11”汇改一周年回顾与展望

Overcome Fear of Floating and Enhance Exchange Rate Flexibility——A Review of the First Year after the 811 RMB Exchange-rate Regime Reform

未来一段时间国内外的宏观经济形势均不容乐观。国际宏观经济形势的特征是停滞、分化、动荡与冲突。国内宏观经济形势的特征是潜在增速下降、负向产出缺口与金融风险显性化。"8.11"汇改的实质是中国央行主动放弃了对汇率中间价的管理。由于当时市场上存在人民币贬值压力,此举导致人民币贬值预期加剧,人民币汇率一度丧失了稳定锚。此后中国央行推出了"收盘价+篮子汇率"的中间价报价机制,这稳定了市场汇率预期。然而,由于缺乏中间汇率、资本管制与价格管制,外汇市场依然难以出清,这导致篮子汇率易贬难升。更重要的是,篮子汇率决定的汇率水平与市场出清的汇率水平之间经常存在冲突。这意味着"收盘价+篮子汇率"不是一个适合长期实施的汇率机制,而只是过渡时期的权宜之计。从短期来看,随着美元指数重新走强以及中国金融风险的显性化,人民币兑美元汇率仍有贬值压力。从中长期来看,考虑到中国出口占全球市场份额的上升、中国出口结构的优化以及结构性改革的推进,人民币兑美元汇率有望重新升值。目前中国央行"中间价管理+有序贬值+资本管制"的组合拳收到了一定效果,但依然没有从根本上消除贬值预期。对中国这样的大国经济而言,长期来看自由浮动是最适宜的汇率形成机制。在过渡阶段,应考虑实现人民币有效汇率的宽幅波动。在当前形势下,中国央行应进一步克服浮动恐惧、增强汇率弹性,唯有这样才能稳定汇率预期与资本外流,以及增强货币政策独立性。

The macroeconomic situation at home and abroad is not optimistic in the future. The international macroeconomic situation is characterized by stagnation, differentiation, instability and conflict.The domestic macroeconomic situation is characterized by a potential decline in growth, negative output gap and emerging financial risk.The essence of the 811 RMB exchange-rate reform is that the Chinese central bank voluntarily gave up the central parity of exchange rate management. At that time,the RMB devaluation pressure on the market led to the exacerbation of the depreciation expectation of the RMB. Since then, the PBOC has launched the central parity pricing mechanism of 'closing price +basket exchange rate', which stabilizes the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate. However,due to the lack of intermediate exchange rates, the capital control, and the price controls, the foreign exchange market is still difficult to clear. More importantly, there is often a conflict between the exchange rate determined by the basket exchange rate and the exchange rate determined by the market.This means that the 'closing price + basket rate' mechanism is not suitable for long-term implementation, but only transitional expediency. In the short term, with the re-strength of dollar and the increasing of China's financial risk, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar is still under devaluation pressure. In the medium and long term, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to revalue, taking into account China's rising global market share, the optimization of China's export structure and the structural reforms. For a large country like China, free float is the most appropriate exchange rate formation mechanism in the long run. In the current situation, the PBOC should further overcome the fear of floating and enhance exchange rate flexibility, which is the only way to stabilize exchange rate expectations and capital outflows, and to enhance the independence of monetary policy.