究竟有无可靠的大地震短临物理前兆？

Do reliable short-imminent physical precursors exist before major earthquakes?

探寻可靠的地震前兆对大地震预测具有重要意义.地震前兆复杂多样,根据感知方式不同,可分为微观前兆和宏观前兆两大类.本文从大地震孕育的物理机制角度出发,结合典型震例,讨论前震事件与标志性地震事件之间已发现的可能地震前兆的可靠性.研究表明,已发现的物理异常现象可能反映了大地震孕育过程中应力的局部涨落效应,难以作为可靠的大地震短临前兆.我们强调,判断某种物理异常是否为可靠的大地震前兆,需进行长期观测才能得出明确结论.

It is very important to seek reliable earthquake preeursom for earthquake prediction. The precumors can be divided into microscopic and macroscopic ones by human perception. Combined with typical earthquake cases, the reliability of possible earthquake precursors suggested by scholars between foreshoek and characteristic earthquake event is discussed in the paper from the angle of the physical mechanism. The study indicates that the physical anomalies discovered previously may reflect the local fluctuation effect of stress during the seismogenic process of major earthquakes, but can hardly be regarded as reliable short=imminent earthquake precursors. We emphasize that the long-term observation about a certain physical anomaly is required for determining its reliability as earthquake precursor.