基于CA-Markov模型的西安市热环境模拟研究

The simulation on Xi'an's urban heat environment based on CA-Markov model

将元胞自动机理论和马尔可夫模型相结合，构造了可用于城市热环境模拟与预测分析的CA-Markov模型．以西安市为例，基于单窗算法反演了西安市2000年和2006年两个不同时相城市热环境数据，并利用构建的CA-Markov耦合模型，模拟分析了西安市2018年城市热环境格局分布特征．结果表明：（1）CA．Markov模型具有较高的模拟精度，可用于城市热环境的模拟研究；（2）2018年西安市不同热岛类型面积由高到低依次为：常温区〉绿岛区〉热岛区〉强热岛区〉强绿岛区，所占面积比例分别为：70．20％、13．06％、12．01％、3．67％、1．06％；2006~2018年12a间强热岛区、热岛区、常温区、绿岛区和强绿岛区的面积变化分别为：0-31％、-0．60％、1．2％、-0．84％、-0．08％；（3）2018年西安市热环境状况整体趋于良好，常温区占绝对优势，但局部地区热环境表现为小幅加剧的趋势．因此，建议西安城市规划建设中热环境规划作为一项重要内容予以考虑．

A CA-Markov model was developed for urban heat environmental simulation. As a case study of Xi＇an＇s, land surface temperature （LST） were retried by Single-Window algorithm in 2000 and 2006. Based on the Urban Heat environment pattern of Xi＇an and by using the CA-Markov model, this paper simulated Xi＇an＇s heat environment pattern in 2018. The results showed that：（1） the CA-Markov model has a better simulation accuracy, which be used for the simulation of the thermal environment trend.（2）The area size of different UHI types in 2018 from high to low were normal temperature zone〉green zone〉heat island zone〉strong heat island zone〉 strong green zone, with the respective ratio of different UHI types area being 70.2 %, 13.06 %, 12.01%,3.67 %, 1.06 %; the changes radio of the different UHI types from 2006 to 2018 being 0.31%. -0.60 %, 1.2 %. -0.84 %, -0.08 %.（3）The future thermal environment of Xi＇an tends to be better and the normal temperature area is dominated, but it may have further deterioration trend locally. Therefore, the proposal in urban planning and construction of the thermal environment planning for the resident should be considered as an important component.