基于系统动力学的老年住宅需求仿真研究

Simulation research on the housing demand of aged based on the system dynamics

首先从供给和需求的角度分析了老年住宅市场的发展概况,将老年住宅市场分为六个子系统,并对各个系统进行分析;其次,运用系统动力学原理及方法,根据老年住宅市场系统内部影响机理,建立系统反馈回路;通过变量间的关系梳理及方程设定,从而构建城市老年住宅系统动力学仿真模型;根据西安市年鉴及国土资源与房屋管理局等统计数据分析,通过方程构建和参数选取,应用系统动力学软件Vensim PLE进行系统模拟与仿真,以西安市2011年至2015年的老年住宅市场的数据作为模型的基础数据,仿真近五年西安市老年住宅市场发展现状,并预测西安市住宅市场未来5年发展走势;最后根据仿真结果,针对政府和企业分别提出了因应对策,以期为政府、业界决策提供参考.

In this paper, the development of the housing for market was analyzed from the perspective of supply and demand, and the elderly housing market was divided into six subsystems, which was analyzed. Then based on the theory and method of System Dy- namics, the system feedback loop was established according to the internal influence mechanism of the elderly housing market sys- tem; by means of the relationship between variables and the equation set, a system dynamics simulation model of urban housing market was built ; according to the statistical data analysis of Xi＇an City Yearbook and Land Resources and Housing Authority, the system dynamics software Vensim PLE was used to simulate the system~ The housing market data from 2011 to 2015 in Xi＇an was taken as the basis of the model, the development status of the housing market over the 5 years in Xi＇an was simulated, and the devel- opment trend in the next 5 years was predicted. Finally, according to the simulation results, the corresponding counter measures was put forward for the government and enterprises, as provide reference for decision-making.