气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估

Safety Risk Analysis and Assessment of Climate Change on China's Maritime Energy Channel

针对气候变化背景下海洋环境响应及其对海上能源通道安全的可能影响和潜在风险,引入了风险分析理论和模式识别方法,对中国海上能源通道安全的海洋环境气候变化响应和风险进行了研究.基于可获取的历史数据资料及政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次报告中的气候变化情景预估,引入贝叶斯网络方法对当前及未来不同气候变化情景下海上能源通道安全风险进行了评估建模,旨在为应对气候变化和保障中国能源通道安全提供决策参考.

Due to the response of marine environment to the climate change, there may be some effect on the safety of maritime energy channel thus causing potential risk. This paper introduces a risk analysis theory and a pattern recognition method for studying the response and risk of marine environment of maritime energy channel. According to the historical data and climate change scenarios available in the fifth report of intergovernmental panel on climate change （IPCC）, the paper uses a Bayesian network to establish a model of the present and future safety risk assessment for the maritime energy channel. The paper aims to offer decision-making reference for tackling climate change and securing our energy safety.