美国出口管制背景下中国飞机类产品出口质量

The Quality of China's Aircrafts under the America's Export Control

基于1994-2014年美中飞机产业进出口数据,用事后反推法测算中国飞机类出口产品的质量,并进一步探讨美国的出口管制对中国飞机类产品的出口质量的影响。结果表明:1994-2014年间,中国飞机类产品出口质量呈现波动性上升趋势,平均增长率达3.07%;中国出口产品质量的提高主要靠加大研发投入力度所带来的自主创新效应和外商直接投资所带来的技术扩散效应,其作用均为进口产品的10倍多;美国的出口管制确实在一定程度上制约了中国飞机类出口产品质量,但效果并不太好;即使美国单方面切断了中国通过进口提升产品质量的途径,中国还是可以继续通过自主创新、引进外国直接投资以及从世界其他技术先进国进口来进一步提升产品质量。

Based on the import and export data of US-China aircrafts from 1994 to 2014, this paper calculates the aircrafts＇ qualities by using backstepping method and then discusses whether the American export control policy hindered the technological progress of China. The results show that, the qualities of Chinese aircrafts were rolling on a rising trend, and the average growth rate came to 3.07%. The most effective drivers were RD and FDI. Their effects were almost 10 times of the importing effects. The American export control policy can, to a certain degree, hinder China＇s technological progress. Even if the America cut off the exports to China, it cannot hinder China＇s technological progress by RD, FDI, and imports from other technologically-developed countries.