预测警务的理论基础与技术路径研究

Research on Theoretical Basis and Technical Path of Predictive Policing

理性选择理论、日常活动理论、犯罪模式理论及环境犯罪学、犯罪地理学等犯罪学相关理论的发展奠定了犯罪预测的理论基础,统计科学、数据科学、计算科学和地理信息系统等技术进步提升了犯罪预测的可靠性和准确性,基于情报导向,警务部门以预测引领警务资源配置和勤务规划,强调更为积极主动的先发式干预以预防控制犯罪,逐步形成了"预测警务"策略,其有效性在多国警务实践中得到验证。我国警用地理信息系统和公安大情报系统包含了部分犯罪预测预警功能,一些地方公安机关近年来开展了以犯罪预测引领先发式警务工作的实践,取得了良好效果。预测警务契合我国公安工作实际需求,是推动情报导向警务战略深化发展的可行选择,其发展路径和经验为我国犯罪预防和警务创新提供了可资借鉴的参考。

Development of rational choice theory, routine activity theory, crime pattern theory and environmental criminology, criminal geography and other criminology theories laid the theoretical foundation of crime forecasting. Advances in technology enhance the reliability and accuracy of crime forecasting, such as statistics theory, data science, computational science and geographic information system technology. Based on Intelligence-led Policing, police department applied crime forecasting for resource allocation and service planning, emphasizing on more proactive intervention to prevent and control crime. Predictive Policing strategy emerged gradually, its effectiveness has been verified in multinational police practice.Our Police Geographic Information System and public security intelligence system contains some crime forecasting and warning functions, some local public security units carried out crime forecasting to proactive policing practices in recent years, and obtained good results. Predictive Policing is consistent with the actual demand of our police work, it will promote the Intelligence-led Policing, its development path and experience provides reference resources of crime prevention and policing innovation for us.