基于事故预测的山区高速公路长下坡安全评价

Safety Assessment for Long Downgrade of Expressway in Mountainous Area by Method of Accident-prediction

在收集国内外相关资料的基础上,对影响山区高速公路长下坡安全性的线形因素进行了分析。通过对国内几条典型山区高速公路长下坡交通事故和线形数据的采集与分析,建立了长下坡路段交通事故预测模型,提出了基于事故预测的评价标准和评价流程,并将评价模型在某山区高速公路长下坡路段进行了应用。实例分析结果表明,该模型具有较好的适用性。

Based on collection of relevant materials domestic and abroad, alignment factors affecting the safety performance of long downgrade of expressway in mountainous area were analyzed. The traffic accident prediction model for long downgrade was developed by collecting and analyzing traffic accident and alignment data from several typical expressways in domestic mountainous area. The assessment standard and procedure based on accident prediction was proposed and applied in practice. The case analysis results show the good applicability of this given modal.