利率与税收政策对沈阳市房价的调控效果分析

The Adjustment and Control Effect of Policies of Interest Rate and Tax on the Price of the Shenyang Real Estate

在沈阳市九个市辖区各选取一个住宅楼盘作为调查对象,调查其在2010~2014年五年间房价的变化情况。并对2010~2014年间国家所出台的利率政策与税收政策进行归纳及量化处理,将收集的房价数据与其相对应时期的政策进行对照比较,对不同调控政策下沈阳市房价的走势变化、政策是否达到预期效果、调控政策的市场反馈时滞性进行综合分析。研究结果表明：利率政策对于沈阳市房价的调控效果不佳。市场效果延迟性较大,降息未引起沈阳市房价太大波动,降息政策调控房价的方向并不明确。税收政策对于沈阳市房价调控效果较好。紧缩型税收政策有力地打击了房地产投机行为,从而控制房产市场投资过热,抑制房价的上涨;宽松型税收政策有利于显化房产存量市场,拉动内需,稳定房价。同时,本研究还从扩大房地产市场供给,稳步去除房产库存,引导资金流入,促进房产市场回暖等角度提出若干建议,以期为房产市场调控政策的制定提供依据。

Choosing one residential real estate from each of the nine municipal districts of Shenyang City as the object,this paper conducted a survey about the price change of real estate from 2010 to 2014,summed up and quantified the policies of interest rate and tax made in the years,compared the collected data of real estate price with the policies made in the corresponding periods,and made a comprehensive analysis of how the price of real estate had changed under different adjustment and control policies,whether the policies had achieved desired results and what the time lag of market feedback of the adjustment and control policies was like.Result showed that the policy of interest rate failed to produce a good adjustment and control effect on housing price; market feedback had a great time lag,interest reduction didn＇t cause housing price to fluctuate too much and the direction in which the policy of interest reduction had been applied to adjusting and controlling housing price was not clearly determined.But the policy of tax produced a good adjusting and controlling effect on house price; the tight tax policy gave the real estate speculation a heavy blow and thus restrained the rapid rise of house price and the hyperinvestment in real state; the loose tax policy was conductive to manifesting real estate stock market,stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing house price.Furthermore,this paper makes suggestions in the perspectives of increasing the market supply of real estate,removing the real estate inventory steadily and directing capital inflows and promoting the real estate market to pick up.