基于层次可拓分析法的采空区塌陷危险性评价研究

Risk Evaluation of Underground Goaf Collapse Based on the Hierarchy Extension Analysis

为研究可拓理论在采空区塌陷危险性评价中的应用,将层次分析法与可拓评价理论法相结合,建立了采空区塌陷危险性评价的物元模型;根据各影响因子建立层次分析判别矩阵,计算各因子的权重与影响度;以广东省大宝山各采空区为例,在分析研究区10个采空区稳定性影响因子的基础上,建立了采空区塌陷危险性评价指标和分级标准,并对研究区采空区塌陷危险性进行了评价与危害分级。结果表明:未确知测度评价结果与本文评价结果一致,说明层次可拓分析法运用于采空区塌陷危险性的评价是合理、可行的,能够较好地反映各影响因素的重要程度并判别其危害等级。该研究可为采空区塌陷危险性研究提供新的思路。

On the basis of the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and extension evaluation method,this paper establishes the assessment matter-element model of underground goaf collapse risk to examine the applica- tion of the extension theory in the risk evaluation of underground goaf collapse. The paper establishes the discriminant matrix of analytic hierarchy according to the influence factors of the stability of underground goal,concludes the weight and influence degree of each factor,and takes the underground goal in Dabaos- han mine of Guangdong Province in China as an example. Then the paper puts forward evaluation index and classification standard of underground goaf collapse risk,evaluates and classifies the collapse risk of the un- derground goaf in Dabaoshan mine. Results show that the collapse risk evaluation results of the under- ground goaf in the study are the same as the results evaluated by uncertainty measurement theory, which shows that the application of hierarchy extension analysis method in underground goal collapse risk evaluation is feasible. The study provides a new analysis method for the study of the stability of underground goaf.