基于AHP-TOPSIS模型的危险化工工艺风险等级评价研究

Risk Level Assessment for Dangerous Chemical Process Based on AHP-TOPSIS Model

危险化工工艺的风险特征在于化学反应过程中显著的放热能量,热失控风险是危险化工工艺须重点考虑的风险因素。为准确评价危险化工工艺的风险等级,在分析危险化工工艺风险特征的基础上,从工艺操作条件危险性、工艺物质危险性、工艺热失控危险性和事故后果严重性四个方面选取危险化工工艺风险评价指标并组成评价指标体系;将层次分析法(AHP法)与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS法)相结合,构建危险化工工艺风险等级评价的AHP-TOPSIS评判模型;应用该评判模型对甲苯磺化工艺风险进行定量分析与评价。结果表明该方法综合考虑了影响危险化工工艺风险的多种影响因素,得到的结果符合危险化工工艺的实际情况。

As heat release in the chemical reaction process is a significaut risk characteristic of hazardous chemical process, the risk of thermal runaway must be specially considered. In order to evaluate the risk of dangerous chemical process accurately, based on the analysis of the risk characteristics of the dangerous chemical process, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for risk level assessment of dangerous chemical process from four aspects of dangerous chemical process including the risk of operating condi- tions,materials and thermal runaway and the severity of accident consequences. The paper builds a compre- hensive model of evaluating the risk of dangerous chemical process based on the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method combined with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution （TOPSIS）. Finally, the paper uses the model to analyze and evaluate the risk of the toluene sulfonation process. The result shows that as this method takes into account various influence factors of the risk of dangerous chemical process, the results obtained are consistent with the actual situation.