论两岸“外交休兵”的政治前景——以南太平洋地区为分析个案

On the Political Prospect of “Diplomatic Truce”between the Two Sides——A Case Study of the South Pacific Region

"外交休兵"的提出实际上反映了国民党和民进党通过"金钱外交"谋求"国际地位"失败后台湾的对外政策转型。"外交休兵"的经验和两岸关系现状将促使蔡英文与民进党重新审视"台独"纲领的可行性,这反过来为"外交休兵"的延续提供了有利环境,因此岛内政党更迭对两岸关系的影响不宜高估,"休兵"仍将是主流。同时,"外交休兵"基础脆弱,两岸机制化的政治互信亟待建构。另外,美澳日等相关大国亦对两岸关系产生多重影响。南太平洋地区曾是两岸冲突的焦点地区,但也是"外交休兵"的受惠之区,两岸应在管控分歧、加强互信、大国协调等方面继续努力。

The “diplomatic truce” reflects virtually the transformation of Taiwan’s foreign policy after the failure of the KMT and DPP in an attempt for the improvement of their“international status” through“money-oriented diplomacy”. The les-sons learned from the“diplomatic truce” and the status quo of the cross-Strait relations will impel Tsai Ing-wen and DPP to re-examine the feasibility of “Taiwan Independence”, which, in turn, provides a favorable environment for the continuation of“diplomatic truce”. Therefore, the influence of ruling party’s change on the cross-Strait relations should not be overestimated and the “diplomatic truce” will still remain to be the mainstream. However, we should be aware of the fact that the foundation of “diplomatic truce” is very weak and the institutionalized political trust between Taiwan and the mainland needs urgently to be built. On the other hand, great powers such as America, Australia and Japan, are trying to exert their influence on the cross-Strait relations. The South Pacific used to be the focal area of cross-strait conflicts but also benefit from the “diplomatic truce”. The writer believes that the two sides of the Straits should continue their efforts to control their differences, strengthen mutual-trust and deepen coordination among great powers.