菲律宾南海政策激进化的内外动因探析--以多重制衡理论为视角的研究

Internal and External Factors Driving the Radicalization of the South China Sea Policy of the Philippines:A Perspective based on Omnibalancing Theory

随着中菲南海争端的持续发酵,南海问题成为学界研究的焦点。但已有研究的重点大多放在国际和单元这两个层次上,对于个体层次的分析相对欠缺,而将国际、单元和个体三个层次综合起来研究菲南海政策激进化原因的成果更是付之阙如。文章认为,个体层次因素是菲律宾南海政策激进化的主因,国际和单元层次因素是辅因,并借助多重制衡理论对此进行了论证:菲南海政策的激进化是由阿基诺三世为了制衡菲军方的政变企图从而维护自身执政地位所致,菲在南海问题上对中国和美国的制衡都是服务于制衡军方政变企图的目标;对菲军方、中国和美国的制衡主要通过巩固美菲同盟这一"一箭三雕"的方式来完成;菲执政者激进的南海政策是以牺牲菲国家长远利益和国民的福祉为代价的。基于多重制衡理论的视角,新上台的杜特尔特政府对其前任激进的南海政策大幅调整的可能性不大。鉴于菲激进南海政策的上述诱因,文章认为,中国应把改善中菲关系的着力点放在建构良好的中菲军事关系上。

As the dispute between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea continues to unfold,South China Sea affairs have become a hot issue among academic researchers.Up to present,most research has focused on either the international or state level,with much less attention to the individual level.Studies which bring together the international,state and individual level to consider systematically the factors driving the evolution of the radicalization of Filipino South China Sea policy are even more rare.It is argued here that individual level factors largely explain the radicalization of Filipino policy towards the South China Sea,with international and state level factors playing a largely secondary role.This article applies omnibalancing theory to support this claim,arguing that the radicalization of Filipino South China Sea policy was largely a result of Benigno Aquino III's efforts to check an attempted military coup,protecting his administration by balancing China off the US vis-à-vis the South China Sea.This step served to check the military's political objectives.Balancing the Filipino military,China and the US was accomplished by consolidating the US-Filipino alliance.Effectively,the administration's radicalization of its South China Sea policy has sacrificed its long-term national interest,and its people's welfare.Based on this theory,it is argued that the Duterte Administration is highly unlikely to dramatically shift away from the radical policy of its predecessor with respect to the South China Sea.This analysis of the factors radicalizing the South China Sea policy of the Philippines implies that China should focus its energies on building a strong relationship with the Filipino military if it desires to improve Sino-Filipino relations.