考虑可调负荷集群响应不确定性的联合调度模型

Combined dispatch model of adjustable load clusters considering response uncertainty

售电侧放开是新电改的一项重点任务,分析需求响应策略的经济性和安全性会为售电市场开放后的需求响应业务实施提供支持。需求侧管理将大量的小时响应负荷建模成多个负荷集群,通过电价信号调整集群的用电量,实现用电高峰时段减小电力缺口的目的。但负荷集群对电价响应的不确定性会造成潜在风险损失,在经济调度模型中考虑这种响应不确定性以达到降低风险值得研究。首先基于蒙特卡洛法得到负荷集群的响应偏差率,然后使用风险损失(VaR)度量负荷集群响应不确定性的风险损失,最后在满足各种约束条件的基础上,对引入风险损失的优化模型进行求解。算例结果表明该联合调度模型保证调度经济性的同时,减少需求侧因负荷响应不确定带来的风险损失。

The open of retail side is an important task for power reform, and analyzing the economic and safe aspects of demand response strategy can provide support for the business of demand response after the open of retail side. A great deal of intra-hour transferable loads are modeled as several load clusters through demand side management, which can change electricity consumption according to the change of electricity price and reduce power shortages in peak energy periods. However, potential risk losses can be caused by the uncertainty of toad response to price and＇this effects of uncertainty in economic dispatch model are worth researching to reduce risk losses. Response deviation rates of load clusters are obtained based on Monte Carlo method and then value at risk （VaR） is used to measure the potential risk losses caused by load clusters response uncertainty. Finally, considering all constraints, the optimization model introducing risk losses is solved. The example shows that the economy of the combined dispatch model is maintained, meanwhile risk losses caused by the uncertainty of load response are reduced.