2016-2017年中国宏观经济再展望

China's Economic Outlook in 2016-2017: Updates

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2016年9月2日发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第二十一次预测。预测显示,2016年下半年中国经济增速仍将继续下行,但全面通货紧缩的风险相对较小,预计2016年实际GDP增速为6.63%,CPI增幅2.01%。课题组模拟了民间投资增速变动的宏观经济效应,政策模拟结果显示,若能提高投资回报率,使其维持在2013年同期约8%的水平,将显著提升民间投资增速,使中国经济在近期保持7%—8%的增长率;相反,若投资回报率连续出现较大幅度的下滑,其所导致的民间投资下降,将使中国经济降至比目前更低的增长水平。基于上述模拟结果,课题组建议:实行中性货币政策,稳定中国经济增长;实行宽松财政政策,促进中国经济增长;落实市场准入政策,扩大投资领域,稳定民间投资预期;加大对民间投资的融资支持;推进税制结构改革,降低企业税负。

On September 2,2016,the＂China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂（ CQMM） Project Team released its21 stCQMM forecast in Canberra,Australia. Under the CQMM,China＇s economic growth is expected to continue edging down due to decelerating investment growth,weak exports growth and subdued consumption growth,while deflation risks will remain low. The GDP in 2016 is projected to grow by 6. 63%,a year-on-year increase of 0. 3 percentage points. The CPI is expected to increase by 2. 01%,an increase of 0. 57 percentage points over 2015. The project team simulated the macroeconomic effects of private investment growth. Policy simulation in this report shows that an increase of private investment growth would be helpful to raise the share of private investment and enable China to maintain its growth rate at about7% to 8%. On the contrary,a sharp fall of private investment growth would plunge China＇s economic growth rate below its present level. As such,the following policy recommendations are presented： 1. Implement neutral monetary policy to stabilize economic growth; 2. Carry out expansionary fiscal policy to bolster China＇s economic growth; 3. Lower market entry barriers and stabilize business expectations for private investors; 4. Take steps to support private financing; and 5. Carry out reforms on the taxation structure to relieve the business tax burden on enterprises.