摘要
对于劳动力供给一度充裕的中部地区,在人口优势消失和产业转型升级的双重压力之下,也面临着人口老龄化不断加剧的难题。剖析人口老龄化对产业转型升级的影响,对中部应对老龄化难题及调整产业结构有着深刻意义。通过选取中部六省2000—2014年的统计数据,建立面板模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验研究两者间的协整关系,并进行回归分析揭示人口老龄化对产业升级的影响效应。结果发现人口老龄化与产业升级之间存在着长期协整关系,表现为老龄化对产业升级的正向促进效应,即有助于人才积累、企业创新以及服务水平提升,说明人口老龄化对中部的产业转型升级起到了切实的推动作用。最后,文章据此提出应增加老年人的消费能力、培育良好的市场环境、促进企业创新的政策建议。
Though with abundant labor supply in the past,the central China,under the dual pressures of population advantages and industrial restructuring and upgrading,is faced with the problem of increasing aging population. Analysis of the impact of aging population on the industrial transformation and upgrading may be of profound significance to cope with the aging problem and adjust the industrial structure. Based on 2000—2014 statistical data of the six selected central provinces,the established panel data model,using unit root test,the paper made a study on the co-integration relationship,and the regression analysis revealed the effect of population aging on industrial upgrading. Results showed that long-term co-integration relationship exists between the population aging and industrial upgrading： the positive effect of the aging on industrial upgrading,which contributes to the accumulation of talent,enterprise innovation and service level. Finally,the paper put forward the policy suggestions on increasing the consumption ability of the old people,cultivating the good market environment and promoting the innovation of the enterprises.
出处
《技术与创新管理》
2016年第6期644-649,共6页
Technology and Innovation Management
基金
教育部博士点基金项目(20113120120010)
关键词
人口老龄化
劳动力结构
产业升级
population aging
labor structure
industrial upgrading
