可再生能源消费与经济增长的关系——OECD国家和中国的比较

The Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth——A Comparison between OECD Countries and China

本文比较OECD国家与中国可再生能源消费与经济增长的关系。通过面板协整检验,运用VEC、VAR模型和Granger因果检验,实证分析了OECD国家与中国可再生能源消费和经济增长的关系。结果发现:无论是OECD国家还是中国,可再生能源消费和经济增长之间都存在长期稳定的协整关系。同时,OECD国家可再生能源消费和经济增长在长期内互为Granger因果,短期内则相互均不构成Granger因果。而中国经济增长对可再生能源消费无论是长期还是短期均是其Granger原因,可再生能源消费对经济增长在长期不构成Granger原因,但若基于只包含滞后第二期的VAR模型,就是其Granger原因。最后,根据比较结果,对我国可再生能源产业发展提出建议。

The paper compares the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth of OECD countries with China. Based on panel cointegration test, VEC model, VAR model and Granger causality test, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth of OECD countries and that of China. The results show that there exists a long-term stable cointegration relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both OECD countries and China. At the same time, there is the long-term mutual Granger causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries, while in short term there is no Granger causality. But for China, the economic growth is the one-way Granger reason of renewable energy consumption both in long term and short term, and renewable energy consumption is not the Granger reason of economic growth in long term. But if only based on VAR model lagging two periods, renewable energy con- sumption is the Granger reason of economic growth. At last, according to the comparison results, the paper puts forward some advices on the development of China＇ s renewable energy industry.