产业结构升级对全要素生产率变动的贡献研究——以苏、粤、闽1978～2013年的面板数据为例

The Research about How the Industry Structure Updating Contributed to TFP Growth——Based on the Su Yue Min's Panel Data in 1978～2013

中国改革开放30多年以来,经济获得了飞速发展,但如果经济增长主要由劳动力和资本增长推动,经济增长率就难以维持,只有全要素生产率的增长才能突破资本深化的限制,维持人均产出增长,本文试图从新的视角选取合适的指标研究产业结构升级和全要素生产率之间的关系。基于数据的可得性以及选择样本的代表性,本文以苏、闽、粤为样本分析产业结构变动对全要素生产率的影响,通过研究发现,产业升级能够解释一部分全要素生产率的变动,而第二产业比重的变化对全要素生产率有着较为显著的影响,第一、第三产业比重变化的影响是不显著的。总体来说,我国产业结构升级对于全要素生产率的增长解释力是比较弱的,只能解释13.22%。

In the past over thirty years, China has achieved rapid economic development. If the economic growth is pushed mainly by labor and capital growth, this growth seems hard to maintain. However, the total factor productivity （TFP） growth can break through the restriction of capital deepening and make per capita product grow persistently. TFP includes technology progress, productive efficiency improving, industrial structure updating and other factors. From a new perspective, this paper is trying to find how the industry structure updating contributed to TFP growth according to appropriate indexes. Considering the availability of data and representativeness of samples, this paper analyzed the industry structure updating＇ s effect on TFP growth based on the panel data of Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian in 1978 2012. Through our research, we find that industry structure updating can explain a part of TFP variation, and the secondary industry portion＇ s variation can affect TFP significantly, but the primary industry and the tertiary industry portions＇ variation can＇t affect TFP significantly. In sum, industry structure updating can only explain 13.22% of TFP growth. As a result, we argue that China＇s economic growth isn＇t mainly the result of industry structure updating.