厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡与减寿趋势分析

Analysis on the trends of mortality rate and life lost among female patients with ovarian cancer in Xiamen city

目的了解厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡与减寿情况及其变化趋势,为厦门市卵巢癌的综合防治工作提供数据参考。方法收集分析2003-2014年厦门市女性户籍居民卵巢癌死亡资料,计算死亡率、死亡率年均变化百分比、平均减寿年数(AYLL)等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和减寿情况进行预测。结果 2003-2014年厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡率为1.41/10万,年均上升5.31%,死亡率随年龄的升高而升高,死亡年龄中位数为60岁;卵巢癌死亡造成的AYLL为7.8年。GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL的预测值与实际值平均相对误差为2.41%和2.83%,预测2015-2017年女性卵巢癌所致死亡率和AYLL值有所上升。结论厦门市女性卵巢癌死亡率呈上升趋势,GM(1,1)模型可用于其死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来死亡年龄还有年轻化趋势,应重视卵巢癌的预防控制工作。

Objective To understand the mortality rate, life lost status and the trends among female patients with ovarian cancer in Xiamen city, provide a basis for comprehensive prevention and treatment of ovarian cancer in Xiamen city. Methods The data of death of female residents in Xiamen city dying of ovarian cancer from 2003 to 2014 was collected and analyzed to calculate mortality rate, the average percentage change （APC） of mortality rate, and average years life lost （AYLL） ; GM （1, 1 ） model was used to predict morta!ity rate and AYLL. Results From 2003 to 2014, the average mortality rate due to ovarian cancer among the women in Xiamen city was 1.41 per 100 000 persons, the yearly increasing rate was 5.31%. The mortality rate rose as the age grew and the median age was 60 years old. AYLL because of ovarian cancer was 7.8 years. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2.41% （mortality rate） and 2. 83% （AYLL） . The mortality and AYLL of ovarian cancer in the women in Xiamen city would increase from 2015 to 2017. Conclusion The mortality rate due to ovarian cancer among the women in Xiamen city showed an increasing trend; GM （ 1, 1 ） model can be used to forecast the trends of mortality rate and AYLL, the age-at-death would be younger in future, prevention and control of ovarian cancer should be paid more attention to.