我国尘肺病发病的空间自相关分析

Autocorrelation analysis of pneumoconiosis in China

目的应用空间自相关分析研究我国尘肺病发病的空间分布特征。方法利用2009至2013年新发尘肺病报告数据，结合《中国统计年鉴》各省的采矿业和制造业就业人数计算各省尘肺病发病率；计算全局和局域Moran’s I值来进行尘肺病发病率的全局和局部空间自相关分析。结果2009年至2013年我国30个省（自治区、直辖市）和新疆生产建设兵团累计报告尘肺病新病例112066例。2009～2013年全局Moran’s I值分别为-0．114、0．179、0．199、0．259和0．241，2010年至2013年尘肺病发病率具有较弱的全局空间自相关现象（P〈0．05）。通过局域空间自相关分析探测出具有统计学意义的空间单元共15个，主要为高高聚集模式。结论2010至2013年我国尘肺病发病具有较弱的全局空间正相关现象，呈一定的聚集分布。局域空间自相关研究结果提示我国西南和中南地区存在尘肺病发病聚集区域，这可能与当地的产业结构和行业分布有关。

Objective Using spatial autocorrelation analysis to study spatial distribution characteristics of pneumoconiosis in China. Methods The incidence of pneumoconiosis of each province from 2009 to 2013 was calculated by reported data of pneumoeoniosis and the number of employment in mining and manufacturing of each province from Chinese statistical yearbook. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was implemented by global and local＇s Moran＇s I index respectively. Results A total of 112 066 new cases of pneumoconiosis were reported from 2009 to 2013 in China, Global Moran＇s I from 2009 to 2013 was -0.114, 0.179,0.199,0.259 and 0.241 respectively. A total of 15 space units with statistical significance were detected by local spatial autocorrelation analysis, which were mainly high-high regions. Conclusion There was weak global spatial autocorrelation relationship of the incidence of pneumoconiosis from 2010 to 2013 among the provinces in China. The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis suggested that there were clustering regions of pneumoconiosis in the southwest and central south of China.