人口转变、产业与就业结构调整视角下劳动力供求关系预测——以宁夏回族自治区为例

An empirical study on labor force supply and demand under the perspective of demographic transition,industrial and employment structure adjustment——A case of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

在人口转变、产业与就业结构调整背景下,利用宁夏历年统计年鉴和近三次人口普查资料,基于分要素预测法,误差修正模型和ARIMA模型,采用中国人口预测系统和Eviews7软件,预测了宁夏"十三五"与"十四五"期间劳动力的供给与需求,进而对它们之间的变化关系进行了分析。结果显示:在宁夏的人口机会窗口逐渐关闭和人口红利缓慢消失的环境下,劳动力供给虽然在上升,但增加速度已经减缓;从劳动力需求来看,第一产业面临劳动力转移压力,而第二、三产业则还有充足的劳动力吸纳空间;宁夏已进入了劳动力供不应求的阶段,并且供求缺口在不断扩大。

Under the perspective of demographic transition,industrial and employment adjustment,this research forecasted the labor force supply and demand during Thirteenth and Fourteenth Five-Year Plans in Ningxia Autonomous Region based on Ningxia statistics yearbooks and population census with the support of CPPS and Eviews 7,and then analyzed the variation of relationship between them. This study found that labor force supply still keeps increasing,but the growth rate is slowing under the environment of close of demographic window and disappearance of demographic dividend. In terms of labor force demand,the first industry is confronting with labor force transference pressure,while the second and tertiary industries still have capacity to absorb more labor force. The forecast results show that Ningxia has entered into the stage of labor force demand exceeding labor force supply,moreover,this gap is increasingly expanding.