政府行为与产业结构失衡——基于30个省际面板数据的实证研究

Government Behavior and Industrial Structure Imbalance:An Empirical Study Based on 30 Provincial Panel Data

产业结构失衡一直是中国经济发展中存在的问题之一,已有研究都认为政府行为和产业结构失衡存在一定联系,但两者之间的具体联系如何,是否存在地域和发展阶段的差异性等问题仍需研究。本文在构建基本的计量模型基础上,利用全国30个最新省际面板数据分析的结果表明:无论是全国范围还是分地域,国有经济固定资产投资对产业结构影响并不明显,但在改革开放初期,国有经济对地区经济的增长起到重要作用;地区政府财政支出规模对产业结构的影响则表现出明显的地域和时间差异。

The imbalance of industrial structures has always remained one of the problems in the economic development of China. The present research holds that there is a certain link between government behavior and industrial structure imbalance. However, it still needs to be studied what kind of relationship there is between the two and whether there is any difference among regions and their development stages still need to be studied. On the basis of a self-constructed basiceconometric model, this paper analyzes 30 provincial panel data. The results show： 1. whether it is in the national or regional level, investment in state-owned fixed assets has no significant impact on the industrial structure; 2. in the early stage of China＇s Reform and Opening-up, the state-owned economy played an important role in regional economic growth; 3. the impact that the fiscal expenditure scales of the local governments have on the industrial structure differ from region to region and from time to time.