21世纪初自然灾害态势预测和综合研究

Natural Disasters in the Early21st Century:Tendency Prediction and Comprehensive Study

各种自然灾害和生物灾害都是因地球及其各个圈层在不断运动和变异的结果。对自然灾害发展态势的预测是地球科学研究的重要任务,据此,本文对21世纪初期我国重大自然灾害的发展态势进行了宏观预测,并提出了自然灾害综合研究的思路,以期推动减灾工作为社会可持续发展作出贡献。

Predicting the development tendency of natural disasters is an important task in geosciences,as most natural disas-ters result from motions and variations of the earth and its lithosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere and biosphere.This paper makes a macro prediction about the tendency of major natural disasters that may occur in the early21st century in China,and rais es ideas of comprehensive study of natural disasters so as to push forward the work of disaster reduction,which,in turn,will make a contribution to the sustainable development of society.