基于阿尔蒙分布滞后模型的消费和收入关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship between Consumption and Income Based on the Distribution of Almon Distributed Lag Medel

近些年随着中国经济的快速发展,居民的收入和消费均有了大幅度的提升。消费不但和收入的当期值有关,还和若干期滞后值有关。基于2000-2014年的数据,运用平稳性检验、协整性检验和阿尔蒙多项式分布滞后模型对消费和收入的关系进行了分析。结果显示二者同为一阶单整序列且有协整关系,而且近三年收入的系数估计值通过了检验。因此在未来制定政策时既要考虑消费和收入的长期协同变化关系,又要重视近三年的收入增长对消费的拉动作用。

In recent years,with the fast development of Chinese economy,the residents＇ income and consumption level has been increased dramatically. As is well known,their consumption is not only related with the current value of their income,but also with several periods of lagging value. Based on the statistics from 2000 to 2014,the relationship between income and consumption has been analyzed through stationarity test,co-integration test and Almon scheme of polynomial lag. And the result shows that these two are integrated series of order and have co-integration relation,and the valuation of income coefficients in the past three years has passed the test. Therefore,it is suggested,when drawing up related policies,our government should consider the long-term synergetic relation between income and consumption,and pay attention to the pulling effect brought by the growth of the income in the recent three years.