自主创新、技术引进与技术进步的通径分析

The Path Study on Self-research,Technology Import and Chinese Technology Progress

从自主创新与技术引进两个视角,将技术进步划分为自主研发、技术模仿、技术溢出与逆向技术溢出四条渠道。基于以上四条渠道,构建出通径分析模型,定量测算出1990—2014年各变量对技术进步的直接影响效应和间接影响效应。结果表明:1自主研发对技术进步呈现显著的促进作用,综合影响效应最大,且直接影响要远大于间接影响;2技术模仿对技术进步的作用呈显著的负向作用,说明技术模仿对中国技术进步作用呈抑制效果;3在间接影响效应中,技术模仿、技术溢出、逆向技术溢出对技术进步的间接影响效应要远大于直接影响效应,且各变量通过自主研发对技术进步的影响效应最为显著,说明中国可能正在接近后发优势的"临界值"。

According to different channels of influence technological progress, the technical progress is divided into four paths, independent research and development, technology imitation, technology spillovers and reverse technology overflow. Based on the above four paths, the paper builds a path analysis model, quantitative measure of technological progress of each variable in 1990-2014 direct effect and indirect effect. Results show that： （1）The independent research and development showed significant role in promoting technical progress, the comprehensive effect was the largest, and directly effect was greater than the indirect effect; （2）The imitation role of technological progress and technology was significantly negative effect; （3）Indirect effect of technology imitation, technology spillover and reverse technology overflow more on technological progress than direct effects.