中国城乡居民储蓄存款影响因素实证研究

The Empirical Analysis on the Factors of Chinese Residents' Savings

文章选取1993—2014年的时间序列数据,通过协整检验和误差修正模型,对中国城乡居民储蓄存款余额年增长率及其影响因素进行了实证研究,结果表明:名义利率的增长显著提高了城镇居民储蓄存款余额年增长率,人均可支配收入年增长率对其的正向影响也较大;而通货膨胀率和上证综合指数均值年变动率对居民储蓄存款余额年增长率为负影响,且前者的相关性较高;人均社会保障支出年增长率和住宅商品房平均销售价格指数年增长率对居民储蓄存款余额年增长率的影响不显著。然后分时期进行分析,在1993—2000年,影响结果与整体阶段一致,而在2001—2014年,只有人均可支配收入年增长率、上证综合指数均值年变动率和人均社会保障支出年增长率对其有显著影响。

This paper is based on the data selected from1994 to 2014.The annual growth rate of savings deposits of urban and rural residents in China and its influencing factors were studied through cointegration test and error correction model.Results show that with the nominal interest rate growth significantly improving the savings deposits level of urban residents annual growth rate,the higher the level is,the lager the positive impact on PCDI will be;while the inflation rate and the average rate of change of annual SCI has a negative effect on annual growth rate of savings deposits of residents,the former shows a higher correlation;annual growth rate of expenditure for social security and annual growth rate for the average sales of commercial housing price index have low effects on the annual growth rate of savings deposits of residents.Then they were analyzed in different periods.During1993-2000,the outcome was the same as the overall stage,but during 2001-2014,only annual growth rate of PCDI,average rate of change of SCI and annual growth rate of expenditure for social security has a significant impact on the annual growth rate of savings deposits of urban and rural residents in China.