2016年6-8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast by T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2016

对2016年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明:3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。对于副热带高压,ECMWF和T639模式均能较好地预报副热带高压移动趋势,但具体过程存在不同偏差,ECMWF模式偏差较小;3个模式中期时效均能报出四川盆地的持续高温过程,且对北方850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,ECMWF和JP模式对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区,T639模式对南方温度预报偏差较大,ECMWF模式综合预报效果最好。对台风妮妲,ECMWF模式预报与零场较为接近,T639模式误差较大。

The performance of medium range forecast for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from June to August 2016 is verified and compared. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. Both ECMWF and T639 models have good performance in predicting the western Pacific subtropical high, and the bias of ECMWF is smaller than that of T639. The three models predict well on the sustained high temperature process over Sichuan Basin, and also can perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa. However, ECMWF model and JP model forecast temperature better for Southern China than for Northern China. Generally, ECMWF model shows a better performance than the other two models. For the Typhoon Nida, ECMWF model does best in predicting the track and intensity, while T639 shows larger errors.