摘要
2016年民间投资下滑的原因是经济基本面恶化的结果还是民间投资自发的泡沫挤出行为值得探讨。自主编程实现的基于IHMM的IMS-ADF泡沫检验的结果表明,民间投资长期偏离国民经济且始终存在可预期破灭的理性泡沫,民间投资的下滑是泡沫生成与累积下的泡沫挤出行为的直接结果,但泡沫挤出速率偏快,易诱发系统性风险。结果分析认为类似"四万亿元"的大规模货币投放以刺激投资增长的措施不再可取,应当坚持通过体制机制、市场基础与政策调控的优化渐进式的改善民间投资状况。
It is worth discussing that the reason for the decline of the private investment in 2016 is the result of the deterioration of the economic fundamentals or the spontaneous bubble extrusion behavior of the private investment. The results of an IMS - ADF model for bubble test based IHMM by autonomous programming implementation showed that, private investment, along with the existence of rational bubble which can be expected to be broken, has long deviated from the national economy, and its decline is a direct result of bubble extrusion behavior after the bubble formation and accumulation, but the rapid rate of bubble extrusion is easy to cause systemic risk. Results analysis showed that Measures such as ＂four trillion＂ on a large scale of money delivery to stimulate investment growth is no longer desirable, but should adhere to the optimization of institutional mechanisms, market base and policy regulation to improve the status of private investment gradually.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期1-10,共10页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“新常态下我国系统性区域性金融风险新特征及防范对策研究”(项目编号:16AJY024)
