基于MAXENT的维氏粒线虫(Anguina wevelli)在我国的潜在分布研究

Prediction of potential geographic distribution areas of Anguina wevelli in China by MAXENT

维氏粒线虫(Anguina wevelli)是危害牧草及草坪草的一类重要植物病原线虫。本文利用MAXENT生态位模型预测了维氏粒线虫在我国的适生区域,并结合该虫在我国的寄主及我国的地理信息,得出了该线虫在我国的潜在分布区域,结果显示,该线虫在我国云南保山南部及临沧东北部地区高度适生,云南除迪庆、怒江、丽江、昭通、西双版纳、文山、红河外的大部分中度适生。预测结果运用ROC曲线(受试者工作特征曲线)验证,测试数据的AUC(areas under curve,曲线下面积)值为0.971,达到了较好的精度。做好进境草籽的检验检疫对于保护上述地区的畜牧业发展有重要意义。

Anguina wevelli is a dangerous nematode,which is harmful to the forage and turf grass.In this study,the potential occurrence and establishment areas were predicted by using MAXENT based on the climate variables and the distribution of A.wevelli.The prediction was confirmed by receiver operating characteristic curve,and the evaluation areas under curve is 0.971.The results showed that the potential distribution of A.wevelli mainly concentrated in east of southwest and middle east of China.Yunnan Province is the most suitable area.Therefore,more attention should be paid to the quarantine for the graziery in China.