欧洲向日葵螟发育有效积温及其成虫发生预测模型研究

Effective accumulated temperature of Homoeosoma nebulellum and degree-day models for forecasting its adult occurrence

为了明确欧洲向日葵螟的发生时期与气温的关系,根据有效积温对该虫的发生时间进行预测,在4个不同温度条件下(24、27、30、33℃)测定了欧洲向日葵螟各虫态的发育历期,利用最小二乘法计算出各虫态的发育起点温度和有效积温;并结合2009-2014年间巴彦淖尔市欧洲向日葵螟监测点的监测结果及当地气象数据,对欧洲向日葵螟成虫发生动态与有效积温的关系进行曲线拟合。结果显示,欧洲向日葵螟卵、幼虫、预蛹以及蛹4个虫态的发育起点温度分别为14.31、8.07、18.27、12.2℃,发育所需有效积温分别为45.13、328.42、12.97、140.54日·度。随着田间有效积温的上升,成虫累积捕获比例呈现两次明显的Logistic增长。研究分别构建了不同世代的成虫累积捕获比例增长曲线模型。上述研究结果可为以后欧洲向日葵螟的监测及防治工作提供科学参考。

European sunflower moth is a serious pest of cultivated sunflower.In order to determine the relationship between its adult occurrence period and air temperature,and provide a suitable tool for predicting its occurrence,we investigated the developmental duration of different developmental stages of European sunflower moth at four constant temperatures（24℃,27℃,30℃,33℃）,and then determined the developmental threshold temperature（DTT）and effective accumulative temperature（EAT）of each stage.Then the data of adult dynamics during 2009-2014 in Bayannur and local meteorological data were used to simulate the relationship between them.Results showed the DTTs of eggs,larvae,pre-pupae and pupae were 14.31℃,8.07℃,18.27℃ and12.2℃,respectively,and their EATs were 45.13,328.42,12.97 and 140.54 day-degrees respectively.The cumulative fraction of adult catches assumes two Logistic growth as the accumulative temperature increased.Finally,the emergence models of this pest were established.