产业关联对经济发展水平的影响:基于欧盟投入产出数据的分析

Impact of Industrial Correlation on Regional Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on Input-Output Table of European Union

产业关联水平是产业结构升级的内在驱动力,因而制造业与服务业间的产业关联度逐步受到广泛关注。在制造业和服务业内部分类的基础上,根据欧盟27国累积投入产出表对各产业关联度进行测算,建立产业关联度对区域经济发展水平演化的理论影响模型,进而应用计量经济工具对产业关联度的影响效应及强度进行实证分析,得出以下结论:第一,模型动态均衡分析证实了产业关联度的提升对于单位有效劳动的产出水平具有正向效应;第二,高端制造业主要与生产性、分配性服务业关联,中端制造业主要与分配性服务业关联,低端制造业主要与分配性、消费性服务业关联;第三,在不同制造业分类背景下的计量分析显示,在制造业升级过程中,产业关联度对经济发展水平的提升作用由缓和增长至快速推动、最终进入稳定趋缓状态。结合中国当前经济进入"新常态"发展阶段所面临的机遇与挑战,研究认为,应在重视产业结构升级的同时,大力推动高端、中端制造业及其对应特征服务业类型的关联度,这将为中国经济实现平稳、持续增长提供更为坚持的保障。

Industrial correlation is the internal driving force of the industrial structure upgrading, so that the correlation between manufacturing and service industry has become the academic hotspot. This paper established the theoretical model of the impact from industrial correlations and carried out the empirical analysis based on input-out table of European Union by econometric tools. The main conclusions are as followed： 1） dynamic equilibrium model analysis confirmed the correlative degree of industry would have a positive effect on regional output; 2） high-class manufacturing mainly associated with productive and distributed service, middle-class manufacturing mainly associated with distributed service, low-class manufacturing mainly associated with distributed and consumptive service; 3） the results of econometric analysis show that the positive effect of industrial correlations on development has a S-shape trend, which is demonstrated as a slow growth at the first stage, a fast promotion at the next stage and into a stable state at the final stage. This paper analyzed the effect and trend rule of the industry integration level on the regional economic growth from the theoretical and empirical aspects. Combined with the current opportunities and challenges we face at the stage of ＂new normal＂ development, we should vigorously promote the correlation between the high-end, middle-range manufacturing industry and its corresponding service industry while attaching importance to the upgrading of the industrial structure, which will provide a lasting guarantee for China＇ s economy to achieve the steady and sustained growth.