贫困地区公共政策、农业发展与减贫的耦合协调分析——基于贵州、云南、安徽三省数据的实证分析

Analysis of Coupling Coordination among Public Policy, Agricultural Development and Poverty Reduction in Underdeveloped Area——An Empirical Study Based on Data of Three Provinces

文章探讨了存在于贫困地区的"公共政策、农业发展与减贫效应"复合减贫系统,从理论层面阐明了公共政策、农业发展与减贫效应三者间的内在作用机理,构建了减贫系统协调发展评价指标体系,运用2005—2014年的数据测算了贵州、云南和安徽三省减贫系统的耦合度、耦合协调度和综合发展值。研究表明,贫困地区"公共政策—农业发展—减贫效应"复合减贫系统基本形成,并逐渐呈现高度协调发展态势;复合减贫系统实现协调发展过程中存在显著的时序和空间差异性,各省协调度的变化演进趋势并不完全一致,且其实现高度协调的时间点也各不相同;公共政策的发展水平决定了减贫系统的耦合协调度大小,农业发展水平的变化趋势对该耦合协调度具有良好的表征作用。

It studies the internal mechanism of composite poverty reduction system constituted by public policy, agricultural development and poverty reduction effect. It also establishes the evaluation index system for the coordinated development of the poverty reduction system. The coupling degree, coupling coordination degree and comprehensive development value of the poverty reduction systems of Guizhou, Yunnan and Anhui are calculated by using the data of the years in 2005-2014. The study suggests that the compound poverty reduction system of ＂public policy-agricultural development-poverty reduction effect＂ in poor areas is basically formed and gradually shows a high degree of coordinated development trend; there are significant temporal and spatial differences in the process of coordinated development of the compound poverty reduction system, but the evolution trends of the coordination degree in different provinces are not exactly the same and the time points of the coordination are variable; the development level of the public policy determines the size of the coupling coordination degree of the poverty reduction system, and the change trend of the agricultural development level has a good representation for the coupling coordination degree.