改进多点灰色模型的研究及应用分析

Research and Application of Improved Multi-Point Grey Model

针对传统多点灰色模型背景值求解方面存在的缺陷,采用自动寻优定权对背景值进行选择,使得实测值与拟合值的残差平方和最小,以提高多点灰色模型的预测精度。实例计算结果表明,与传统的多点灰色模型相比,背景值改进的多点灰色模型预测精度有很大的提高。

In order to improve predictive accuracy ofthe multi-point grey model,background values are selected by automatic optimization weights such that the residual sum of squares of the actual and fitted values is minimal.Caseresults show that,compared with traditional multi-point grey model,prediction accuracy is greatly improved with the background values optimized grey model.